Indexed by:

Journal paper

First Author:

Mingyu Yan

Correspondence Author:

Jinyu Wen

Co-author:

Zhiyu Zhou,Chuangxin Guo,Jiazheng Lu,Wei Yao

Journal:

Automation of Electric Power Systems

Included Journals:

EI

Place of Publication:

China

Discipline:

Engineering

First-Level Discipline:

Electrical Engineering

Document Type:

J

Volume:

40

Issue:

21

Page Number:

168-175

ISSN No.:

1000-1026

Key Words:

transmission line; icing forecast; risk assessment; Monte Carlo method; time-varying failure rate

DOI number:

10.7500/AEPS20160506004

Date of Publication:

2016-11-10

Impact Factor:

7.086

Abstract:

Ice storm disaster has various negative impacts on power grid security and stability. To evaluate the power grid risk accurately, a risk assessment method for power grid icing based on short-time icing forecast is proposed. The ice and wind loads on lines can be forecasted by the icing forecast system. The time-varying failure rates of transmission lines can be calculated by the time-varying structure reliability theory. A restoration time model of transmission line with DC deicer is built as is a time interval model of deicer. Owing to the incapability of reflecting the time-varying failure rate of iced lines using the traditional Monte Carlo method, a sequential Monte Carlo method of solving this rate is proposed. The proposed model is tested on an IEEE RTS-79 system. The effects of the time interval of icing forecast and deicer on risk indices are analyzed and related suggestions made.

Links to published journals:

http://www.aeps-info.com/aeps/article/abstract/20160506004?st=search